Delphi: Nothing in Excess

If Ody could understand the meaning of Oscar Award,  He will be very happy cause WALL-E got the award for best animated feature film againts the nominess both BOLT and KUNGFU PANDA. Actually Odi also likes KUNGFU PANDA or according to his pronounciation “KUKU PANDA”, but WALL-E gives him a better satisfaction. Each time he watch WALL-E, he always repeat “WALL-E” and “EVE” many times.

On February 20, 2008, around 2 million people came to Washington DC for his inauguration as the first Black American president. There is a great expectation from people of America and the World to lift them from desperate conditions. Some media equalize him with FDR, JFK, and Lincoln because of his speech but for me his speech remind me on King’s speeches around 44 years ago.

From now on he should change from “yes we can” into “yes we must”. He is a pragmatic man that will stand among distinct opinions according to one of the media. One of my concern that probably he will more domestic oriented and more protectionist. For the latter, it probably will make Krugman get mad.

The world is celebrating his inauguration as could be seen from the people who gathering to watch his speech like watching a rock star: Japan, Indonesia, Peru, Berlin, Bosnia-Sarajevo, Kenya, Poland, Iraq, Pakistan, and India as shown in BBC-CNN. Congratulation Mr. Obama, it is now the time to work: you need a smart-hard work and also good luck of course! The media and around the world will watch your actions and steps: some of them will disagree and the other will support you, but no matter what happen it depend on your way on handling it!

I remember that some of the young couples enjoyed her acting in “Titanic”. For some unspeakable reasons, most women/girls shed tears for this romantic story. She finally won the golden globe for her “Revolutionary Road”. I appreciated her natural behavior and comments at the golden globe award party.  

I was in a seminar in Medan on the November 22nd 2008 with the empty room. Actually not really empty, but the participants were lower than expected. Here is the press release of the seminar:

Mr. Basri’s notes
Indonesia’s economic growth will be affected by the unfolding global developments, but the situation is unlikely to be as severe as in the crisis a decade ago, and also better than in some of the other regional economies. This was noted by Mr. Chatib Basri, Director, LPEM-UI at a seminar on Sumateran and Indonesian economic prospects organized in Medan on Saturday by the LPEM in cooperation with the National Secretariat for Subregional Economic Cooperation of the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Speaking at the seminar, Mr. Basri noted that direct impact of the financial crisis emanating from the US are still small though the indirect effects through trade channels and financial channels could be large. The trade channel operates through lowered exports from Indonesia due to recession in its export markets, while the financial channel works through the impact on balance sheets of firms that have high levels of debt and are unable to access adequate capital due to lack of liquidity in the financial system. Overall, Mr. Basri noted, the growth would slow down in 2009 and the rupiah may depreciate, but the effects would be modest and, at the same time, inflation would be lower than in 2008. [Please find about Mr Basri’s forcast for 2009 gdp growth:4.5%-5.5%, inflation 7.5%-9%, SBI 3 months:8.5-9.5%, exchange rates (Rp/$)=9800-12000.]

Additional from my opinion
The growth as shown above could be achieved with this necessary condition: stimulate the domestic economy due to the the fall of world demand to our exported goods. The old keynessian prescription told us that in order to stimulate domestic economy, the government could do something by taking action through budget; in addition, the history of the monetary told us that at the time of the US great depression that the sudden money supply shock  depressed the US economy at that time or we could say that probably the central bank could help economy by using its expansionary policy. To support this argument I suggest that for the next year we should consider of the danger of the global deflation rather than global inflation.

Mr. Srivastava’s notes
On the Sumateran economy, ADB noted that its long-term growth will be strongly improved by participation in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT) subregional cooperation initiative. The IMT-GT includes the entire island of Sumatera, Peninsular Malaysia and all 14 provinces of southern Thailand up to Phuket and Ranong. The IMT-GT aims to improve economic conditions of the participating regions through increased trade, investment and tourism. According to the ADB, mainland Asian economies are rapidly integrating with the rise of People’s Republic of China and of India, and the increased connectivity of Mekong countries. The IMT-GT provides a platform for successful integration of Sumatera with the mainland Asia, which will benefit both Sumatera as well as Indonesia. This will require increased infrastructure investment to promote connectivity between Sumatera and Malaysia and Thailand in particular, through improved road and port infrastructure and multi-modal roll-on roll-off connectivity corridors across the Malacca Straits. The ADB, a multilateral development bank based in Manila, is a Development Partner of IMT-GT and providing technical and financial support to the cooperation initiative. In addition to facilitating improved infrastructure connectivity, ADB is also supporting private-sector business development.

Additional from my opinion:
The key point for the integration between Sumatera and other Mainland Asia is the cost of logistics.

Mr. Pannennungi’s notes
A large survey of Sumatera’s manufacturing sector is being implemented by LPEM and ADB to assess the investment climate and challenges in the business environment in Sumatera, as well as policy responses to address these constraints. Initial findings of the Sumatera Investment and Trade Survey (SITS) were presented at the seminar by the LPEM, which showed access to finance and infrastructure inadequacies as the biggest constraints to private sector businesses in Sumatera. The full findings of the SITS will be released early in 2009.

Additional from my opinion:
For the time being, the movement of goods and people from Sumatera to the rest of the world is mainly to Java Island rather that the closest neighbor country. One of the explanation is the barrier of the movements are still big.

I was asked why I did not choose the governor candidate on 8 August 2007. I just answer with a short sentence: It is indifferent for me either X or Y win the election. After thingking for a while, I could give the same point for the both candidates. Then if I choose, it will not fair because I will choose both. It is better not to choose than chosing both, it is an inefficient way!

There are increasing tensions among nations facing the export of the Giant, China. If you look at the data on the WTO, there is an increasing anti dumping case againts China and also what we have seen today could be part of it. Sooner or later, the trade war will happen. Trade war has just  been started and the consumers will be the victims…

Freakonomics on Chinese imports

The more populist tone is one indication of a broader debate among Democrats over how much they should break with the centrism of the Clinton years.

Strange Things Do Happen at Full Moon