Delphi: Nothing in Excess

I was in a seminar in Medan on the November 22nd 2008 with the empty room. Actually not really empty, but the participants were lower than expected. Here is the press release of the seminar:

Mr. Basri’s notes
Indonesia’s economic growth will be affected by the unfolding global developments, but the situation is unlikely to be as severe as in the crisis a decade ago, and also better than in some of the other regional economies. This was noted by Mr. Chatib Basri, Director, LPEM-UI at a seminar on Sumateran and Indonesian economic prospects organized in Medan on Saturday by the LPEM in cooperation with the National Secretariat for Subregional Economic Cooperation of the Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Speaking at the seminar, Mr. Basri noted that direct impact of the financial crisis emanating from the US are still small though the indirect effects through trade channels and financial channels could be large. The trade channel operates through lowered exports from Indonesia due to recession in its export markets, while the financial channel works through the impact on balance sheets of firms that have high levels of debt and are unable to access adequate capital due to lack of liquidity in the financial system. Overall, Mr. Basri noted, the growth would slow down in 2009 and the rupiah may depreciate, but the effects would be modest and, at the same time, inflation would be lower than in 2008. [Please find about Mr Basri’s forcast for 2009 gdp growth:4.5%-5.5%, inflation 7.5%-9%, SBI 3 months:8.5-9.5%, exchange rates (Rp/$)=9800-12000.]

Additional from my opinion
The growth as shown above could be achieved with this necessary condition: stimulate the domestic economy due to the the fall of world demand to our exported goods. The old keynessian prescription told us that in order to stimulate domestic economy, the government could do something by taking action through budget; in addition, the history of the monetary told us that at the time of the US great depression that the sudden money supply shock  depressed the US economy at that time or we could say that probably the central bank could help economy by using its expansionary policy. To support this argument I suggest that for the next year we should consider of the danger of the global deflation rather than global inflation.

Mr. Srivastava’s notes
On the Sumateran economy, ADB noted that its long-term growth will be strongly improved by participation in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT) subregional cooperation initiative. The IMT-GT includes the entire island of Sumatera, Peninsular Malaysia and all 14 provinces of southern Thailand up to Phuket and Ranong. The IMT-GT aims to improve economic conditions of the participating regions through increased trade, investment and tourism. According to the ADB, mainland Asian economies are rapidly integrating with the rise of People’s Republic of China and of India, and the increased connectivity of Mekong countries. The IMT-GT provides a platform for successful integration of Sumatera with the mainland Asia, which will benefit both Sumatera as well as Indonesia. This will require increased infrastructure investment to promote connectivity between Sumatera and Malaysia and Thailand in particular, through improved road and port infrastructure and multi-modal roll-on roll-off connectivity corridors across the Malacca Straits. The ADB, a multilateral development bank based in Manila, is a Development Partner of IMT-GT and providing technical and financial support to the cooperation initiative. In addition to facilitating improved infrastructure connectivity, ADB is also supporting private-sector business development.

Additional from my opinion:
The key point for the integration between Sumatera and other Mainland Asia is the cost of logistics.

Mr. Pannennungi’s notes
A large survey of Sumatera’s manufacturing sector is being implemented by LPEM and ADB to assess the investment climate and challenges in the business environment in Sumatera, as well as policy responses to address these constraints. Initial findings of the Sumatera Investment and Trade Survey (SITS) were presented at the seminar by the LPEM, which showed access to finance and infrastructure inadequacies as the biggest constraints to private sector businesses in Sumatera. The full findings of the SITS will be released early in 2009.

Additional from my opinion:
For the time being, the movement of goods and people from Sumatera to the rest of the world is mainly to Java Island rather that the closest neighbor country. One of the explanation is the barrier of the movements are still big.

I watched his victory speech. I could see that his speech is an improvement of King Speech in “I have a dream”.

I conclude that Obama is the greatest gift to the American in this century. US has shown us that American Dream is devoted for each of American: White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, and other citizens. In the same time, American could show the world that freedom and democracy could make everything possible.

We are waiting for his work. I have big hopes for the better condition, as his campaign “Yes We Can Change!”, nevertheless I do not want to expect too much.

I was in a conference in Aceh this week. I saw a better perspective of the future of  Atjeh than ten years ago.With the massive reconstruction, this region should recover soon from the Tsunami destruction in 2004. Hopefully the welfare of the people increase due to the “capital per worker” seems to be increased compared with before Tsunami.

According to the news today,based on the research,  this kind of Tsunami, had attacked  Atjeh around 600-700 years ago. If this is true, that time is closer to the establishment of Atjeh Kingdom around 700 years ago that use modern law: 21 codes for Athenese people.

I remember one of the Bugineese Prophecy about the biggest changes in the world will exist for every 700 years (this is the reason why the I Lagaligo story only was ended in 7 decendants). I also remember the magnificent work of Pramudya “Arus Balik” that also shown the biggest reverse in the world around 500-700 years ago. I am questioning myself whether the big changes in the world history is about to be started.

I watched CNN Compassion Forum last week. For the first time I directly observed Obama’s public speaking in Pennsylvania. This has changed my opinion from underestimated about his chance to be the US President.  I saw a better performance in him compared with the other two candidates.In addition, He has  a good opinion about most of Indonesian Moslem population:” which tolerant and could work in the modern world with the Jews, Christians, and others”. He added that “the clash of civilization is sometimes just for politically interest than the reality”.

The economic growth for this year could be higher than 6 percent, but the inflation could be higher than the government expected. There is at least one reason to be optimistic about growth: there are some big provinces that conduction governor election this year such as South Sulawesi, East Java, Central Java, West Java, and North Sumatera. There is unknown number of spending of the each governor candidate team that could help the economic growth. About inflation, everything is already clear such as what the TV tell us everyday…..

After having watched celebrity gossips for years such as silet, hot gossip, insert, insert investigasi, kiss, cek dan ricek, and others, I found one hypothesis that the income differential between husband and wife could determine the level of divorce.

Lets define D=Divorce, ID=wife’s income minus husband income. The higher the ID, the higher level to be divorced. Let us D=f(ID), that shows the positive relationship between income differential and level of divorce.

If this hypothesis is empirically true, it fulfills one of the phrases from film Shreck that “celebrity marriage never last”.

If I am not mistaken, Iqbal once said that the Nations are built by the Poets but will be destroyed by the Politicians. If it is true probably the best thing to do for me is “never votes for the greedness of politicians, unless I have a strong and good enough reasons”