The Rise and The Fall of Great Powers
The Rise and The Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500-2000 by Paul Kennedy (1989) tried to predict the future of world politics patterns by having a great explanation on the world history on the economy and the military conflicts about 500 years (1500-2000). He implied three main points: first, there will be a shift both shares of total world product and total world military spending, from five largest concentration of the strength to many more nations in a gradual process. Secondly, the global productive balances between these five have already begun to tilt in certain direction: away from US and USSR (Russia now), away also from EEC (EC now), to Japan and China. Thirdly, there is still bipolar between USSR and US [this already proven wrong, it seems US dominant over USSR/Russia]. Japan probably one day will change its policy to become active in military after no longer preserve its interests simply as “trading state” [let see this trend in the future]. West Germany [Germany Now] and China will avoid an excessive investment in military spending in order to enhancing their economic growth [???]. Even though this book has been proven wrong some prophecy; however, it still has a great explanation that probably could be proven in the future.
Though I have the same opinions with you, however, I am always not good at expressing my ideas. You are truly great!