Delphi: Nothing in Excess

One of the most debatable topics about globalization is the relation between the trade liberalization and environmental problems. B.R.Copeland and M.S.Taylor (2003) in “Trade and Environment: Theory and Evidence” noted that for the last ten years environmentalists and trade policy community have squared off over the environmental consequences of liberalized trade; this was fueled by negotiation over NAFTA and GATT, both of which occurred at a time when concerns over global warming, species extinction, and industrial pollution were rising. The debate intensified with the creation of the WTO and proposals for future rounds of trade negotiation. There are two questions of the book are addressed: first, how does the increase in economic activity induced by international trade affect the environment? Second, how does the environmental policy affect a nation’s trade pattern?. Please read the book for the answers, but my purpose in this blog is trying to show one of the Indonesia’s studies that probably could explain the relation between the international and inter-regional trade and the environment. Syamsu Alam (2007), in his dissertation at Hasanuddin University, shows his findings on “Conversion Pattern and Benefit Value of Candlenut People Forest in Kabupaten Maros, Sulawesi Selatan”. As the increasing of the some commodities price, during the last ten years relative to the candlenut caused by international and inter-regional trade (such as kakao for export; and tomato for inter-regional between South Sulawesi-Eastern Part of Kalimantan), there are a massive conversion from the Candlenut People Forest into three patterns [Please remember Samuelson Theorem].

I quote his dissertation below (Alam, 2007):

“There are 3 HKR (Hutan Kemiri Rakyat=Candlenut People Forest) conversions from HKR into farming: conversion into non permanent cultivation, permanent cultivation, and kakao estate. All kind of conversions shows that the benefit value from the income and land rent of conversions, which are received by farmers directly, are higher than the income and land rent from HKR. In contrast, the indirect benefit (intangible benefit), which are not received by farmers, are higher compared with the direct benefit (tangible benefit). The tangible benefits that affect most of the conversion HKR are the HKR income and conversion income. While the intangible benefits do not have influences on the HKR conversion. The increasing of income from HKR will decrease percentage of conversion, whereas the increasing of income from HKR conversion will increase the percentage of conversion. The land rent differential or the difference between the income from HKR and from its conversion is the main factor that affect the farmers to convert from HKR into its conversion. The other factor that determine the conversions are size of land ownership, household resource, population density, and accessibility. The small of size of land owned by farmers, low population density, and higher accessibility will increase the HKR conversion. However, the restriction of the right of the farmer on HKR will reduce conversion, but this will decrease the income of HKR caused by the restriction of the land”.

He also proposes the ways in facing the problems, in Alam (2007):

“In order to undertake the conversion of HKR, it is needed the incentive policy such as the increasing of HKR income through the farmer’s right for state land forest cultivation (management right), subsidy for HKR regeneration, and payment for their environment services compensation. It is also needed disincentive policy such as tax policy on conversion production and also suspending of management right license if the farmer were converting the HKR. The concept of sustainable management of HKR that support conversion prevention is integrating forest area management with the people forest business and other rural sectors.” Through this blog I want to say Congratulation on his promotion that I attended in Makassar, June 20th 2007. I noticed that he did working hard on doing his dissertation, sometimes he had to stay day and night for doing this work. Hopefully this work will get attention for saving environment that becomes the place that we are living together….. Again, Congratulation Brother!

If Nawal El-Shaddai were Indonesian, She would write a more sad story than “Women at Point Zero”. Probably She would have given a sadder title: “Women at Point Minus 1000”. The inequality between man and woman is one of the major sources of the inequality in the world. The first place of the inequality is at home when the strong rule the weak and the strong interpret all the truth. For most of the cases the strong is man, and the weak is woman. However, not only in the “domestic” the inequality exists, but also in the “foreign”, the workplace and social life.

Emma Goldman, an anarchist activist, suggested to rebel and war upon the entire system, which created by man. She did not believe that the true liberty is from the US constitution, but from the fight for freedom: rebellion and revolution. Her idea on rebellion was not from the books, but from her childhood harassment experience: the domestic violence. It happened when her fathers treated her mother, her sister, and herself with cruelty. She was imprisoned several times and died alone in exile as the consequence of her struggle against the system. However, her idea in women movement still alive: true liberty cannot come alone from the constitution, but you have to fight for that. You cannot wait for the true liberty come alone, because you will die before it really happens. I don’t know whether Marsinah read the idea of Emma Goldman or had a bad experience in her childhood, but they have the same way: rebellion against the unjust ruler. Marsinah is not just the symbol of the labor fighting, but also women movement in Indonesia. She was died with the brutal torture on her genital part. She was tortured and killed not just as the labor activist, but also left a gender bias. We have many “Marsinah” which still dying out there, especially in TKW (Women Labor Force) in Malaysia or Arab Saudi. They are working without any strong protection from labor union or government.

“Tinung” is another sad story of the women in Indonesia. Tinung, in novel Ca Bau Kan, is a prostitute: a woman who serves man with her body. The society has inequality treatment on the Tinung problem: the women always given the worse side. Even though the male prostitute exists, the society associates the prostitute with women. The preacher called them a sinner, a trash on society, which should be vanished. The housewives curse them as the disturbance of the family. The society put the women as the troublemaker. They forget that the major source of the existence of the Tinung is the demand for their service. The demand comes from the husband and son, the ruler in home, and also the whole world. Probably the Rendra Poetry, title “Bersatulah Pelacur-Pelacur Kota Jakarta” (Be United The Jakarta’s Prostitute) can give us a better understanding the reason of the existing of Tinung in the whole world: the whole system of society which ruled by man. Marsinah and Tinung are the symbol of the gender inequality treatment in Indonesia. The fact on statistical data can give a better support. In the 1990 data, the comparison between female and male student on university were 40% to 60%, which is better than 1980: 6% to 94%. The senior high school in the 1990 were 44% to 56 %, while in the 1980: 38% to 62%. Azkia (2001), in “The Relationship Between Women’s Formal Education and Socio-Economic and Political Development for Indonesia in the Period 1980-2000” found that there was a fact that the increase of female literacy rates during the study period was higher that that of male: 3.6% to 2.0%. However, it was found that the percentage of female professional does not exactly correspond to their share of earned income: the average percentage of female professional and technical workers during a ten-year time was 41.3 percent while that of female’s share of earned income was 33.02 percent, and thus there is a difference of 8.01 percent. In addition, the empirical data shows that there was only 11.1 percent of female in parliament during 1980-2000, which is the similar trend in almost all countries in the world.

Not only Marsinah and Tinung, there is also “Alia”, a fiction character, become the symbol of Aceh women, who had been raped. There were also thousands women raped in Bosnia, and the entire world: both in war and peacetime. They have been raped not only by the stranger, but also their trusted friend, their boyfriend, and even worse: their husband. The entire society has raped them in the physical, psychological, and social life. The women are also discriminated not only in the “foreign”, but also in “domestic”. Probably that is the reason of Eve Ensler (2001) in “Vagina Monologue”, try to explore the women genital as the protest to the society on the inequality and also unjust treatment. Some activists, including Emma Goldman, suggest rebellion to the entire society system, which is ruled and interpreted by man, as the only solution. I, myself, suggest that the inequality and unjust reduction could be started in our home: when a mother treat her sons and daughter in the same way and gives equal opportunity or when the brother respect to his sister and mother.

The poetry below, titled ‘hair’ is taken From “Vagina Monologue” Eve Ensler (2001). Unfortunately, it was erased.

Before erased, I wrote this “Reader, please respond either this poetry should be erased or kept, I am worry about reader’s opinion about this…”

After erased, I am writing this “After considering many opinions, I decided to erase the poetry, our culture still do not have a permission for this kind of poetry. The idea of  this opinion started five years ago, after having watch the performance of VM in GMU, Virgina, US, in February 14th, 2001. This year is the 7th year of the performance.”

The Rise and The Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500-2000 by Paul Kennedy (1989) tried to predict the future of world politics patterns by having a great explanation on the world history on the economy and the military conflicts about 500 years (1500-2000). He implied three main points: first, there will be a shift both shares of total world product and total world military spending, from five largest concentration of the strength to many more nations in a gradual process. Secondly, the global productive balances between these five have already begun to tilt in certain direction: away from US and USSR (Russia now), away also from EEC (EC now), to Japan and China. Thirdly, there is still bipolar between USSR and US [this already proven wrong, it seems US dominant over USSR/Russia]. Japan probably one day will change its policy to become active in military after no longer preserve its interests simply as “trading state” [let see this trend in the future]. West Germany [Germany Now] and China will avoid an excessive investment in military spending in order to enhancing their economic growth [???]. Even though this book has been proven wrong some prophecy; however, it still has a great explanation that probably could be proven in the future.

There is an increasing trend on the price of the primary commodities. Is it a good news for the developing countries that exporting these goods? Wait a minute, please read this first and also this .

According to the Press Release of WTO Report (April,12th,2007), Price changes for manufactured goods remained less strong than those for primary products (for 2005,2006). Probably the trends of the price will be continued into 2007, especially the price of agricultural and mineral product.

International trade theory reminds us that an increasing international price will drive the exporting countries to supply to the world trade and in the same time this goods will be squeezed in the domestic economy. The restriction of the commodity to be exported probably will raise the smuggling if the institution that related to the national border fail to face its duty.   

One of the books from the 1990’s that shape the mind of economists and policy makers was “The Age of Diminished Expectations” by Krugman (1995). He started his books by explaining three kinds of writing economics: Greek-letter, up and down, and airport. Greek-letter is a formal language from Professor to his students (most of his works based on this), up and down is the business pages on the newspapers or what we could get on TV, while airport is the language of the best seller economics books. This book probably could be included into both the second and the third.

Through this book, He was trying to figure out the problems of the US economy in the 1990s from productivity, income distribution, unemployment, trade deficit, inflation, health care, budget deficit, global finance, and American Prospect. After finishing read this book, suddenly I realized that this book is a kind of popular reading from his best seller book “International Economics: Theory and Policy”, the book that I use for teaching International economics. One of his opinion that part of the debatable issues in US was US trade deficit. His opinion about this problem based on his AA, DD, and XX curve model in his book as a rival of the IS-LM curve model. Please read his “International Economics: Theory and Policy” first for a better understanding of the content of this book.

“The choice of advisers is of no little import to a prince; and they are good or not, according to the wisdom of the prince. The first thing one does to evaluate the wisdom of a ruler is to examine the men that he has around him; and when they are capable and faithful one can always consider him wise, for he has known how to recognize their ability and to keep them loyal; but when they are otherwise one can always form a low impression on him; for the first error he makes is made in his choice of advisers”

This book is quite intriguing in giving understanding of free trade: “The Choice: Fables of Free Trade and Protectionism”,Roberts, Russell (2001), gives us a better explanation in a very gentle way about the debate around free trade. The sub title that is very interesting is “Self-sufficiency Is the Road to Poverty”. I quote some part of it.

………………………………………………………………………………………….

“But, Dave, if America became so poor because imports are banned, why did not people get rid of the laws that keep out foreign goods? Could not people see they were getting poorer?

“Sure, but people were scared. They did not blame protectionism for their poverty. When economist proposed reopening America to the world, people worried about their jobs. What would replace the jobs they already had, if foreigners were allowed to compete?…”

“But you argue that other jobs will arise to replace them”

“People could not see that. Not only did they fear the transition between the old world and the new, they could not imagine the computer chip, portable computer or pharmaceuticals yet to be discovered to fight disease. There were no industries like that even to imagine. People were content to hold on to what they had.”