Some reports mention about the end of economic crises. I think it is a very good news; however, we should be very careful wheter the crisis curve shape is V,U,L, or W. If the crises were over then the curve shape is “V Curve” and everybody will be happy
I usually skeptic and questioning about the optimist projection of the
world economy from the some reports. However, one thing that I know
that this crisis will not be the second great depression because of two
reasons. First, the international coordinatiopn under G20 and the
international organizations (IMF,WB,WTO) have prevented the worse
condition through the coordination of fiscal, monetary, and trade policy.
Second is Ben S. Bernanke. He has learned the great depression a lot
compared to any economists in US today (probaby only could be
compared with Milton Friedman who passed away last year or Barry Eichengreen. a historian).
Is there any correlation between the government policy and the economic performance? The answer is yes, but the policy is not alone. Sometimes the other factor such as “external shock” or “unexpected events” could affect the performance more than the policy. One of the good paper to describe this phenomenon is “U.S. Monetary Policy During the 1990s” by Mankiw (2001) described this condition as “Good Luck”, as shown below.
“…. US monetary policy during the 1990s, comparing it to policy during the previous several decades. It reaches four broad conclusions. First, the macroeconomic performance of the 1990s was exceptional, especially if judged by the volatility of growth, unemployment, and inflation. Second, much of the good performance was due to good luck arising from the supply-side of the economy: Food and energy prices were well behaved, and productivity growth experienced an unexpected acceleration. Third, monetary policymakers deserve some of the credit by making interest rates more responsive to inflation than was the case in previous periods. Fourth, although the 1990s can be viewed as an example of successful discretionary policy, Fed policymakers may have been engaged in “covert inflation targeting” at a rate of about 3 percent. The avoidance of an explicit policy rule, however, means that future policymakers inherit only a limited legacy…”
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So now, most countries need good luck, especially Indonesia to escape from this current economic crisis.
Ten years ago I wrote in a media that the future of the globalization of the world economy would face problems from the political side and the world was entering de-globalization as the arising of massive rejections of the increasing the flow of goods and services, factor of production (especially capital), information, and people. I have to admit that I was wrong; the real of the de-globalization is starting now, and the source come from the political economy, not the politic alone.
If I were the government economist, I will considered this quotation from P.J.O’rourke “Eat the Rich” is just a joke:
Songs of the (Government) Economic Advisers:
“Kill the poor,
Eat the rich,
Screw every other son-of-a-bitch.”
If Ody could understand the meaning of Oscar Award, He will be very happy cause WALL-E got the award for best animated feature film againts the nominess both BOLT and KUNGFU PANDA. Actually Odi also likes KUNGFU PANDA or according to his pronounciation “KUKU PANDA”, but WALL-E gives him a better satisfaction. Each time he watch WALL-E, he always repeat “WALL-E” and “EVE” many times.
From now on he should change from “yes we can” into “yes we must”. He is a pragmatic man that will stand among distinct opinions according to one of the media. One of my concern that probably he will more domestic oriented and more protectionist. For the latter, it probably will make Krugman get mad.
The world is celebrating his inauguration as could be seen from the people who gathering to watch his speech like watching a rock star: Japan, Indonesia, Peru, Berlin, Bosnia-Sarajevo, Kenya, Poland, Iraq, Pakistan, and India as shown in BBC-CNN. Congratulation Mr. Obama, it is now the time to work: you need a smart-hard work and also good luck of course! The media and around the world will watch your actions and steps: some of them will disagree and the other will support you, but no matter what happen it depend on your way on handling it!
I remember that some of the young couples enjoyed her acting in “Titanic”. For some unspeakable reasons, most women/girls shed tears for this romantic story. She finally won the golden globe for her “Revolutionary Road”. I appreciated her natural behavior and comments at the golden globe award party.
I remember one of the wisdom words from Newton” I can see farther because I am standing on the shoulder of giants” which means any progress in this world must owe on the previous progress from the older generation or any previous civilization. The works of Gavin Menzies could be the evidence of Newtons’s wisdom words. In 2003 Menzies published “ 1421: The Year China Discovered the World” and followed by “1434: The Year A magnificent Chinese Fleet Sailed To Italy And Ignited The Renaissance” which is published in 2008.
In his “1421: The Year China Discovered the World”, Menzies notes that “On March 1421, the largest fleet the world had ever seen set sail from China. The ships, some nearly five hundred feed long, were under the command of Zeng He, Emperor Zhu Di’s loyal eunuch admirals. Their orders were to proceed all the way to end of the earth. The voyage would last for two years and by the time the fleet returned; China was beginning its long self-imposed isolation from the world it had so recently embraced. And so the great ships were left to rot, and the records of their journey destroyed. And with them, the knowledge that the Chinese had circumnavigated the globe a century before Magellan, reached America seventy years before Columbus, and Australia three hundreds and fifty years before Cook”. This book containts not only showing the high achievement of China civilization but also giving us the very useful learning of the high cost of the isolasionist policy which means autarky in international trade.
As the sequel, Menzies (2008) in 1434: The Year A Magnificent Chinese Fleet Sailed To Italy and Ignited The Renaissance stated that “In 1434, a sophisticated Chinese delegation visited Italy. After that date the authority of Aristole and Ptolemy was overturned, and Chinese knowledge ignited the work of geniuses such as da Vinci, Copernicus, and Galileo. China’s influence had sparked the Renaissance. The course of Western civilization was changed forever. This book containts the contribution of the China Civilization and the other civilization to the nowdays on what so-called modern civilization.
Who is the jugde?
The judge is God
Why is he God?
Because He decides who wins or loses, not the opponent
Who is your opponent?
He does not exist
Why does he not exist?
Because he is merely a dissenting voice to my opinion to speak the truth
Speak the truth!
(The Great Debaters, 2008)
